Saturday, September 17, 2005

Another Iraqi Bombing

Another 30 Iraqis have been killed in an anti-Shiite car bombing in Baghdad.

One wonders how much longer before the Shiites decide to strike back - or have they, already, in Tal Afar, one wonders? Some reports (in the American Conservative, I think) suggested that there were some revenge killings of Sunnis - I'll post more when I find out where I read it - but in general, it seems that the Shiites have been passive rather than retaliatory.

Of course, it could be that Shiite violence is underplayed because the Shiites are our allies, but if we assume that, as is portrayed in the media, the Shiites are still holding back while the Sunnis attack them, one has to wonder how much longer this will go on. Eventually, the Shiites will fight back, and hard.

In the meantime, the question we should be wondering is, is there a clear dividing line between civil war and not-civil war? Fatalities from attacks by (mostly Sunni) insurgents against other Iraqis, mostly Shiites, have been climbing in recent months, although they may be down this month compared to last month (aqnd maybe the month before). If they continue the general trend and keep rising, will Iraq eventually fall into a civil war in the same way as the proverbial frog was boiled - one degree at a time? And a bigger question - if the civil war does come, what will happen to coalition forces in Iraq?

I don't think that Iraq's imediate future looks very bright.

That is all.

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