Monday, December 27, 2004

The Iraq Plan for the Sunnis

Listening to Chuck Krauthammer and, I think, Bill Sammon from the Washington Times on Fox News today, I got an ominous sense that the Sunni Arabs had better watch out.

When talking about the possibility of set-asides for the Sunni Arabs, they basically said that the Sunni Arabs will play our game or get shafted when the new government is elected.

I have a feeling that this will strengthen the hand of those Sunni Arabs who fear that democracy will bring about Shiite dominance. To the extent that Sunnis are afraid of an election, it is because they fear that the Shiites will avenge themselves on them rather than due to a hatred of the democratic process and an antipathy toward freedom. Not that some people don't want to amass power for themselves, but I doubt that they are afraid that a wonderful free society will emerge.

In any case, from the tone that Krauthammer took, I am afraid that if the elections don't work out well for the Sunnis that we are looking at a protracted war with them - and ultimately I think that there may be a move toward heavy oppresssion of them.

Also, if the Sunnis (Sunni Arabs, I mean) get shafted, that may well cause the Kurds to become more insistent on a separate state - not because they love the Sunni Arabs and wouldn't help to put them down themselves - but because they are afraid that, as minorities themselves, they will be overwhelmed by the Shiite Arabs after the Sunni Arabs are dealt with.

I think that a civil war looks more likely all the time, assuming it isn't already going on.

That is all.

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