Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Glaivester Predictions

Predictions for 2006:

(7) The market (i.e. the Dow Jones) will not break its previous record of 11722.98 (01/14/2000), and will close below 11,000 on the last day of the market year (i.e. December 29).

Recent losses in the Dow of around 400 for this week (anyone know where I can find a list of the ups and downs for the Dow for any day I want, not just for today?) keep this prediction well within the realm of possibility.

(8) By the end of 2006, gold will be over $650.00 and silver over $10.50.

Well, as of this writing, silver is $13.12 an ounce and gold is $685.00 an ounce, so let's say I feel pretty good aobut this prediction.

I would be remiss if I did not mention Ilkka Kokkarinen's post on predictions. He suggests that people should be willing to put up some money on the things they predict so as to risk losing it.

Myself, I make predictions as a test of my deductive ability more than anything. So I'm not going to bet anything on the outcome of my predictions, as I make them primarily so that I can see later on how accurate I was or wasn't. I expect my readers to give my predictions weight (or not) based mainly on my track record, for which purpose I have tried to keep tabs on my prognostications. So whatever you want to make of the things I predict you have the information to determine whether I tend towards accuracy or mistakes.

That is all.

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