Monday, January 24, 2005

The Elections

While I agree with Arthur Chrenkoff that we cannot delay the elections (and that ding so would not make them more successful, I don't think he is right that the elections will make the insurgency seem less legitimate.
Primarily, I think that whoever loses out in the elections won't consider them legitimate; this will be an especially bad problem if no party receives a majority of the vote. Moreover, if the US tries to manipulate the elections, it will cast doubt on their legitimacy (remember, a lot of the party lists are not public - it is very possible that after the election someone could just insert a large number of puppets into whichever election lists win). Finally, I doubt that the Us will actually let the government have complete control if it starts doing things we don't like.
If the politicians start reneging on their promises due to American pressue, even those who voted for them may see nothing wrong in classifying them as puppets or collaborators. And in any case, they might still be willing to attack Americans and other coalition troops.
I also think that the increasing use of ethnic rather than political language by the insurgents (assuming that it is really increasing and we are not just hearing more about it) is due to actual feelings, not just a tactial ploy, as Chrenkoff appears to be implying.
In any case, I think that Charley Reese's predictions about the elections is much more likely to come true.

That is all.

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