Sunday, February 26, 2006

Victor Davis Hanson Still Needs to Learn About Reality...

I thought I would go about debunking V.D. Hanson's latest little piece of fantasy.

Okay, so the gist of the peace is that we are winning in Iraq, we are being into thinking we are not by the eeeeevil MSM (mainstream media), and we just need to avoid losing heart.

Now let's break this apart one piece at a time.

First, he claims that the insurgency lacks the ability to do three things:
(1) Drive the U.S. out
(2) Stop the training of Iraqi security forces
(3) Stop the formation of a new government

While technically true, this doesn't really matter. The insurgency doesn't have to win stay viable, it just needs not to lose. It can't drive us out, but it can sap our strength. It may not be able to stop us from training Iraqi security forces, but that doesn't mean that the forces we train will be able to provide security from the insurgents. And they may not be able to derail the new government, but unless that government has the ability to actually get things done, they don't need to.

And I'm not sure that the government isn't doing a good job of derailing itself. The reasons that it will be difficult to create a functioning multiethnic democracy in Iraq go beyond the problem of the insurgency, and the insurgency is not the only manifestation of ethnic and anti-U.S. strife in the U.S. And, contra Hanson, it does appear that the latest attacks have indeed been a setback to the formation of a new government, so Hanson's belief in an unstoppable democratic juggernaut is not entirely supported by the facts, to put it mildly.

Next, he outlines what he claims are the three strategies of the insurgents:
(1) Try to make things look worse than they by using suicide bombings, IEDs, and assassinations. These really aren't that big a deal, but for some reason the media emphasizes these things rather than school construction.
(2) Those who re linked to al Qaeda are trying to foment civil war. Again, the media helps the terrorists by not showing how much the vast majority of Iraqis believe in multiculturalism and tolerance.
(3) Third, they try to increase normal crime and thuggery, because, you know, it's not like Iraq has a lot of opportunities for thugs to rape, loot, and steal without help from organized insurgents.

Like the neocons are wont to do, Hanson makes much of the 100,000 criminals released from Saddam's jails prior to the invasion.

I'm not certain how relevant this is, for two reasons. For one thing, itis unlikely that the assassinations, suicide bombings, mosque-bombings, and IEDs are being done as part of normal criminal activity. Secondly, while Hanson is likely correct that the insurgency is not committing most of the rapes and thefts in Iraq, let's be honest: rapes and thefts are not why people think that Iraq is in chaos. I haven't heard that many (if any) any reports about rapes in Iraq, or about theft outside of a few cases where police stations were looted for guns, and maybe one or two large bank heists. The idea that "the terrorists have succeeded in making all the daily mayhem of a major city appear to be political violence" doesn't make sense when one considers the fact that most of the "daily mayhem" type violence either doesn't get reported, or else no one listens to it. The stuff that convinces people that there is a lot of political violence is the overtly political violence - assassinations of major figures, mass-casualty bomb attacks, etc. Most importantly, the killing of coalition soldiers is what concerns Americans - and in most cases, that can hardly be attributed to street crime.

And even if a lot of the violence is committed by common thugs, it doesn't speak well of our ability to maintain order in the country.

On the issue of the mainstream media's reporting, I'll believe that building schools is as significant as the suicide bombings, assassinations, and IED attacks the day that someone says "forget about the World Trade Center, I want to know about school construction projects that were going on in the U.S. on Sept. 11, 2001.

Also, Hanson sets up a bit of a straw man when he chides the MSM for believing that civil war is likely:

And indeed, in the world that we see on television, there is no such thing as a secular Iraq, an Iraqi who defines himself as an Iraqi, or a child born to a Shiite and Sunni. No, the country, we are told, is simply three factions that will be torn apart by targeted violence.

There may be secular Iraqis, but some of the Sunni/Shiite divide is simply a divide between ethnic factions, and the actual religious differences do not necessarily matter; moreover, being secular does not make one immune to hatred of other people baed on their religion. Sure, there are Iraqis who say they only think of themselves as Iraqi, not as the member of a clan or sect. But in many cases, what this means is "my clan or sect is Iraq." In other words, they just think of themselves as Iraqi, but that simply means they want Iraq to stay together as a single country which they rule.

Next, he basically lays out our choices and the stakes in a long-winded fashion that adds nothing to what he has already said.

Now for the predictions for the future. Victor Davis Hanson says that we are going to win. This, of course, is a tremendous surprise to everyone except those people who have ever read a sentence of Mr. Hanson's work.

Specifically, he says that the Americans he has talked to believe that a new government will soon form and be seen as legitimate in the eyes of the people, and it will lead the Iraqi security forces to victory against the insurgents.

Who, exactly, are these Americans? Are they soldiers? Is anyone stupid enough to think that soldiers are allowed to say anything but "things are wonderful!"? Military censorship of the media is well-documented.

Then he states that the terrorists through their bombs have told him that they are still trying to use terrorism to stop the two things they fear: the Iraqization of those opposed to them (i.e. the building of anti-insurgent Iraqi security forces) and the democratization of Iraq. I find it interesting that without talking to them, he can divine what they are afraid of and why they fight us. Perhaps he should go into the necromancy (talking to the dead) business with Michael Ledeen.

Then he states:

It is an odd war, because the side that I think is losing garners all the press...

Gosh, it couldn't be possible that the fault is with him, and that he is underestimating the insurgents, is it?

Who are you going to believe? Victor Davis Hanson or your lying eyes? Of course, Hanson is the one we should believe:

Yet we hear nothing of the other side that is ever so slowly, shrewdly undermining the enemy.

Evidence for this is as follows:

(1) The Iraqi Army is now going on about half of coalition patrols and on many of its own.
(2) The Iraqi Army is now "developing into the best trained and disciplined armed force in the Middle East."
(3) We have rebuilt the infrastructure real good except for one or two essential parts - so progress on electricity and oil production will occur Real Soon NowTM (I think Jim Henley came up with this expression).
(4) We are going to use an "oil-drop" strategy to pacify Iraq, slowly expanding the "safe area" outside the Green Zone.

I suppose that the Iraqi Army may be going on a lot of patrols, but this ignores the question of where its true loyalties lie, and as to whether or not the Iraqi military is one of the institutions fomenting civil strife in Iraq. Of course, even if the Iraqi Army is fomenting strife, that doesn't necessarily negate Hanson's belief that its increase in power is a boon to U.S. Forces; it is quite possible that the U.S wants the Shiites to take revenge on the Sunnis in order to beat them down and discourage the insurgency. Nonetheless, it would tend to negate any argument that the increased activity of the Iraqi Army is a sign of progress towards a peaceful, democratic, and free Iraq. Rather, we would have an Iraq under the tenuous control of a faction that we ourselves exercise some level fo control over (for now). As far as being the best trained and disciplined army in the Middle East, bollocks. Israel's is certainly better, and Turkey's almost surely so as well. Probably he meant the best trained and disciplined army in the Arab world. This may be true, but it is rather like referrring to Carrot Top's most intellectual performance. And it looks as if they won't be replacing us anytime soon.

Hanson's argument on infrastructure bascially boils down to "trust us, here's only one step left." This is hardly encouraging. The fact of the matter is that electricity production is down below pre-war levels; oil production is ---- I even heard Fox News mention this. Perhaps all that needs to be done is the completion of the most vulnerable elements, power lines and oil pipes, but the fact of the matter is that unless we see some progress toward the completion of these things, then we can have evey other element in place and the electricity production and oil industries will still be shot to Hell.

As for the plan to expand security outward from the Green Zone, have we started yet? Is there any evidence that we have been successful in incrementally increasing security around the Green Zone at all? Without actual demonstration of the "safe zone" expanding, the "oil drop" strategy is mere wishful thinking.

Then Hanson outright lies. According to Hanson, "The nature of the debate has also changed at home." No one is concerned anymore that with whether Bush lied, or whether we "won the war but lost the peace." Nor does anyone care about flaws in our strategy. No, no, there are only those who think that we need to be patient and we will win, and those who think that it isn't worth it.

Although he doesn't say so explicitly, the way that Hanson phrases this suggests that even the antiwarriors agree that we can "win" - by which he means establish a pluralistic, democratic Iraq - they just don't think that doing so is worth it.

Of course, this is a lie. It is true that fewer people worry now about what we did wrong during and after the invasion, but that is mainly because most such people now believe that we shouldn't have gone in in the first place. A lot more people are now convinced that Bush lied (or at least distorted the facts), and that it is important to note that he did so. And the idea that staying longer will not help the situation in Iraq is a major reason why people think we should get out.

Next he suggests that everyone agrees that the people in Iraq know what they are doing, and that troop morale is wonderful, and everything is great and secure.

Most of these are simply assertions, and require the assumption that the troops are able to say what they really feel and that we can trust what the generals tell pro-war columnists. I am unconvinced that troop morale is high, due to the fact that, as stated before, the troops do not have the luxury of honesty, and due to the fact that another supposed indicator of the high morale and attractiveness of our military, high recruitment numbers, have been belied by the facts that the army has (a) reduced its goals, (b) started accepting dumber applicants.

Moreover, the high reenlistment numbers, often used to show how good soldier morale is, may be due to what amounts to coercion.

So I'm sorry if Mr. Hanson's statements don't impress me much. Sorry.

Next, there is a bunch of crap about how high the stakes are and about how our alternatives are (1) the terrorists win and take over the middle east (and next the world, presumably) or (2) we stay, in which case we will surely win. Rather naive, or more precisely rather idiotic.

Finally, he closes with a stirring rallying cry:

Can-do Americans courageously go about their duty in Iraq — mostly unafraid that a culture of 2,000 years, the reality of geography, the sheer forces of language and religion, the propaganda of the state-run Arab media, and the cynicism of the liberal West are all stacked against them.

I'm really glad to know that Hanson thinks it i a good thing that we blythely ignore the clear and present problems in Iraq, including the "cynicism" of those who think that we ought to come out with strategies and goals that are plausible.

Iraq may not have started out as the pivotal front in the war between democracy and fascism, but it has surely evolved into that. After visiting the country, I think we can and will win, but just as importantly, unlike in 2003-4, there does not seem to be much of anything we should be doing there that in fact we are not.

It's always refreshing to hear someone declare how out of touch with reality he is.

That is all.

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