Monday, November 08, 2004

Predictions

The Fallujah assault has begun.
My predictions:
(1) November will have at least 100 hostile coalition fatalities, at least 20 of which will be non-Americans. I wouldn't be surprised if the final count is more like 200.
(2) If we succeed in conquering Fallujah, then things will die down for a few weeks before we have another surge in violence, probably around late December or around the time of the elections.
(3) Large desertions from the army will occur. The US governemnt will continually "Kurdishize" the Iraqi Security Forces while denying that it is doing so, or at least trying to distract attention from the fact.
(4) Civilian casualties will be in the 5,000-10,000 range, but the administration will try to claim that there were fewer than 3000.
(5) Fallujah will be practically razed to the ground, but the administration as well as pro-war propaganda outlets like FoxNews and WorldNetDaily will constantly refer to this as "liberation," and talk about how relieved the Fallujans are that we have taken the city away from those thugs who were controlling it.
(6) We will continually hear lies reports that 99.9% of Fallujans were pro-American and that everyone who fought against us was an Iranian or Syrian.

That is all.

No comments: