Max Boot seems to think that the insurgency cannot win.
(1) I think that there was enough American manipulation of the election that a good percentage of Iraqis do not consider the elected government wholly legitimate. Therefore, they don't see the insurgents as revolutionaries fighting against the wonderful (small-d) democrats they elected.
(2) The lack of a unifying organization, ideology (other than "get the Americans out") or leader helps them, not hurts them, as there is no "head" that we can cut of to end the insurgency, and as there is no way other than getting our troops out to address their grievances and to abstract people from the insurgency.
(3) Finally, I don't see attacks on civilians as weakening support for the insurgency, because in the end Iraq is fractious enough that people often won't care if civilians are killed as long as it isn't their friends and family. As I understrand it, most of the attacks are on Shiites, so if the insurgency is mainly Sunni, they don't care about losing hte support of those they attack.
I think that the biggest problem with neocons like Max Boot is, once again, that they think that the Iraqis are like us and that they think like us.
That is all.