If things keep going at the rate they are going, October will show about 55 hostile and 8 non-hostile deaths, lower than the previous two months. (October's toll is 39 and 5 currently).
Why is this?
The pro-warriors and Bush supporters would say that either Zarqawi has lost support, or else we are doing better at going on the offensive.
I have another theory:
We found the enemy city that would be easiest to re-take and re-took it (Samarra).
Otherwise, we have stayed inside more than the previous two months (as we did in February, but to a lesser extent than during that month).
We have restricted our attacks on Fallujah to air attacks (i.e. bombing).
I think that we are trying very hard to lower casualties in the month before the election, regradless of its effect on the war, as cynical as that may seem.
Before this is seen in any way s being pro-Kerry, let me say that were Kerry the president, we would probably be doing this to an even greater extent.
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