Iraq Metrics

One thing that I don't agree with that a lot of people do when talking about Iraq is discuss troop deaths in terms of total American fatalities.
I think that total coalition fatalities from hostile fire is a much better metric, because in terms of measuring the insurgency, a dead Brit is the same as a dead American, and a soldier killed because he cleaned his rifle like
Al Gore is not the same as one killed by an angry Iraqi.
Taken from this measurement, the coalition suffered 18-28 deaths a month from June 2003 to September 2003, 32-39 deaths a month from October 2003 to March 2003 (not including the unusually high number of deaths in November (94) or unusually low number in February (16), and between 44 and 75 deaths a month from May 2003 to September 2003. (April had the unusually high number of 131).
So far, October 2004 has been a slow month, with 2 deaths in ~ 2.5 days. But don't count on it continuing.
My prediction: If we're still in Iraq, expect >100 deaths a month by next summer.