Does anyone else think that there are parallels between the Kurds and the pre-Israeli Zionist Jews? That is, that they are a people without a state looking to build one?
I think that we are going to see a parallel situation over the next few years, although I think it will be considerably bloodier.
For a Kurdistan to succeed, the Kurds need 7 things:
(1) Land.
(2) A source of revenue to use to build their economy.
(3) Help developing their economy.
(4) Protection from Turkey.
(5) Total destruction of any ability of the Arabs in Iraq (most importantly the Sunni Arabs) to oppress them ever again.
(6) The transfer of Turkomen
(7) Enough people to keep the area viable.
My thoughts on how this will work:
(1) Kurdistan's boundaries will be established much in accordance with the Kurdish distribution shown in this map, although the Kurds will probably control all of the oilfields
east of the Tigris and will set the western Kurdistan boundary as the Tigris River from somewhere north of Tikrit to somewhere north of Mosul.
A more detailed description:
In the following description of Kurdistan's borders, references to the oilfield map will be labled OF, and to the ethnoreligious map ER.
Basically, the Northern, eastern, and northwestern borders of Kurdistan will be the current boundaries of Iraq. The southern border of Kurdistan will start at the border with Iran, a little farther north than due east from Baghdad, where the Kurdish region starts (ER). The border will continue more or less along ethnic boundaries up until it gets due east of Tikrit (ER). At this point, it will go more or less west to the Tigris, so that Kurdistan encompasses the Hamran and Talkhana oilfields (OF) and meet the Tigris just north of Tikrit (ER), so that Kurdistan encompasses the refinery near Bayji (OF) that is on the east side of the river. From here, the border of Kurdistan will be the Tigris River, up to just north of Mosul (ER, OF), where it will veer west and slightly south so as to encompass the Sasan and northern oilfields (as well as the refinery on the northeast bank of the Tigris) (OF) as well as the city of Sinjar (ER), connecting with the border between Iraq and Syria just about where the Sunni Arab/Kurd Mix patch's (ER) southern border ends.
In the northern Tigris region, the Sunnis will be left with the Bayji and Al Qayyarah refinery and the Al Qayyarah and surrounding oilfields.
Kurdistan may also at some point spread west into Syria, as it has a Kurdish population of 2 million (out of around 20 million) and a relatively weak government. Neither Turkey or Iran are likely to lose territory, as both are strong enough to simply expel their Kurds. In any war with Syria, Israel is likely to help the Kurds so that they can get the most favorable settlement possible.
(2) Oil will at first probably be the Kurd's most useful source of revenue. Thsi will be used to develop other areas of the economy.
(3) I have a feeling that Israel will be more than willing to hlep encourage Kurdish economic development, althoug the US may not be so helpful out of a desire not to alienate Turkey.
(4) If it comes to a threat of Turkish invasion, I have a feeling that Israel will threaten to protect Kurdistan with nukes, or at least will provide support to make Turkey rethink that idea (but nukes are always in the background).
Realistically, though, I don't think that the Turks can accept a Kurdish state that sponsors terrorism within Turkish borders, so ultimately the Turks will end the threat of terrorism by brutalizing their own Kurds, eventually driving many or most of them into Iraqi Kurdistan.
(5) I have a feeling that as the insurgency builds, and the Us runs out of troops, that instead of reinstituting a draft, we will simply put down the Sunnis by redubbing the Kurdish pershmega as "Iraqi Security Forces" and using them to "clean up" recalcitrant Sunni cities. In other words, let them do mass slaughters. I think that the Sunnis in Kirkuk, and in fact all throughout the northeastern region of Iraq will be slaughtered or driven out. Mosul could well become a split city, a like the split Jerusalem plan for Israel. Sunnis in the northwestern portion of Kurdistan will likewise be encouraged to lead. It is also possible that a large portion of hte Sunni population in Mosul will leave as well.
In addition, many Kurds will probably be willing to severely punish the Sunnis in cities like Fallujah, in order to weaken the Sunnis in general so they cannot challenge the Kurds later.
(6) The Turkomen, I think, represent a threat to a Kurdish state because they provide a reason for a Turkish invasion and because Turkomen in Kirkuk are competitors for oil revenues. I have a feeling that the Turkomen will be slaughtered en masse if not transferred to Turkey or Turkmenistan.
(7) I have a feeling that once a Kurdistan exists, there will be a great movement of Kurds to it. Moreover, the Kurds in Kurdistan may actually attempt to provoke Iran and Turkey to exepl their Kurds so as to gather them in Iraqi Kurdistan, in order that they can win any demographic wars with the Sunni Arabs in Iraq. In many ways, I expect that there will be a repeat of the Arab nation's expulsion of their Jews and their subsequent resettlement in Israel, although in the case of the Kurds I expect that the Kurdish government itself will, as I said before, provoke the expulsion (as I recall, some Arabs accuse Israel of doing this, but I am not familiar with the arguments and counterarguments). Syria is the one place where there is a sizeable Kurdish population where this might not happen; in the case of Syria, it is likely that Kurdistan will annex portions of land rather than just accept refugees, although it is possible that Kurds living on non-annexed land will be expelled. I think of Syria as exceptional because Israel would be able to intervene if the Syrians just started expelling Kurds, and could help the Iraqi Kurds to conquer portions of what is currently Syrian land.
I'll make a graphic of Kurdistan later, but I think that within 4 years, there will be an independent Kurdistan, and that within 10 years, we will see a Kurdistan of 15-20 million people in what is now Northern Iraq and eastern Syria, and a greatly diminished Kurdish population in Iran and Turkey.
Previous Posts:
Predictions for Iraq
Thoughts on Iraq
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