Sunday, October 17, 2004

What to do About Iraq

I think that if my predictions about Iraq come true, it would be a disaster. Not only would thousands of Arab Sunnis get killed, but the relationship between Turkey and Israel will be soured, Kurds from Iran and Turkey will probably be killed in large numbers and driven out brutally, and the US will suffer a loss of prestige and influence.

The only way to salvage this situation is for the US to realize the problems and to start dealing with each one.
(1) We need to bring Syria, Turkey, the Iraqi government, and Iran together in a meeting with Kurdish leaders from all four countries and discuss what would be necessary to protect their interests if a Kurdish state were to form in northern Iraq. Unless there is a massive, to the point of genocidal, campaign against the Kurds (which the US would have to be a party to, if it is still in Iraq when a fight for Kurdish independence begins), this WILL happen, so these countries (Turkey particularly) will have to form their plans with a Kurdish state as a fait accompli.
(2) We need to pressure the Kurds to allow religious freedom for Assyrian Christians in Kurdistan as a condition for a new state. At the same time, for those Christians who live elsewhere in Iraq and/or who do not wish to live in Kurdistan, we need to see what arrangements can be made with the Syrian, Lebanese, and Israeli governments to grant them either temporary refugee status or else full residency and/or citizenship. Ultimately, Christians who wish to leave Iraq would probably be best settled in Lebanon.
(3) For the Arab areas of Iraq, we need to start drawing down our forces, and to let whatever happens happen. We will have to rely on the Kurds as a break on Iran instead of using a Sunni Arab-dominated Iraq as we did in the Hussein years. If extremists take over in Baghdad, or if Iranian sympathizers in Najaf, we will just have to deal with that fact.
(4) I think it would be a good idea to pressure the government of Iraq to accept Palestinian refugees, whether from Jordan or from Israel. Palestinians who wish to leave these countries but who have no place to go can go there.

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