More Thoughts on Iraqi Elections

I previously wrote:

Well, they are nice and all, but do they actually change anything in terms of the insurgency? I doubt it.

I think that Lawrence Auster sums up the situation nicely in this post.

As I see it, the general neoconservative argument seems to be that the "Islamists," who are apparently comprised of all Arabs who dislike us, and who compose a united front, are as ideology-minded as the neocons and whose main feature is both a hatred of democracy and freedom, and a vulnerability to freedom and democracy (by which I mean that freedom and democracy supposedly weaken, repulse, or somehow injure "Islamists" like sunlight does to a vampire).

Therefore, holding elections defeats the "Islamists" and weakens their power over Iraq.

I remember Ollie North proclaiming on Hannity and Colmes that the thing the "terrorists" (by which he meant all of the insurgents in Iraq) fear the most is "those purple fingers." Apparently the assumption is that once they get a taste of voting, the Iraqis who are currently pro-insurgency or ambivalent about the insurgency (or even part of the insurgency) will come around to our side.

Unfortunately, I think that this is a caricature, and not a terribly accurate one at that.

I think that a lot of the insurgents are probably Sunnis who think that violence will get them a better deal than voting in a fair election will. Of course, there is no reason why they shouldn't assume that voting and carrying on the insurgency will get them an even better deal.

Moreover, the act of voting does not necessarily imply an endorsement of democracy. It just means that people acknowledge that the election is happening, and that voting in the election will be more beneficial to them than abstaining. A man who prefers beef to chicken might buy chicken when beef supplies are limited; this does not mean that he now prefers chicken or that he won't buy beef as well, or that he endorses chicken over beef.

I think that the elections will continue on schedule, with new governments being elected every so many years, for as long as we are there. But the insurgency will go on, and the extrapolitical power plays (e.g. the insurgency) will also go on.

And we will keep having more hollow victories.

That is all.