Looking at Fatalities

Here is an update of a table I posted previously. It lists total coalition hostile fatalities in Iraq by month for each year. (Stats from ICasualties)


......2003..2004..2005
Jan...........39....74
Feb...........14....42
Mar.....82....35....33
Apr.....53...131....46
May......6....64....69
Jun.....24....45....69
Jul.....28....45....48
Aug.....23....63....75
Sep.....18....74....45
Oct.....35....58....79
Nov.....94...129....71
Dec.....32....58....34

So are things better this year than last year, or not?

Total hostile fatalities for last year were 756, and this year are 719 and counting. If we assume that trends for this month continue, then we should have about 68 hostile deaths for December. (i.e. we're aboiut halfway through the month, so total December fatalities should be about twice what they are now). This would make the death toll for 2005 753, slightly less than that for 2004.

Using 68 as the figure for December, and comparing the months on the basis of highest fatality to lowest, we find:


2004..2005
131...79
129...75
74....74
65....71
63....69
58....69
58....68
45....48
45....46
39....45
35....42
14....33

So 2005 and 2004 were both about as deadly, but in 2005 fatalities were much more consistent on a monthly basis (i.e. fewer highs and lows).

This is primarily because we didn't do two major assaults on Fallujah this year, and because the insurgency has increased enough in strength that months like February 2004, with blessedly few fatalities, are no longer occurring.

What does this mean for next year? My guess is that we will see some uptick in fatalties, but not a particularly large one; and that deaths per month will remain at least as consistent as they did this year (i.e. the spread between most and least deadly months will not be much more than a factor of two).

I'll do a report on wounded later, but I will say right now that I believe that wounded numbers have gone down somewhat since 2005; not drastically, but statistically significantly. And I believe that they are generally lower on a month-by-month basis, the higher wounded toll for 2004 is not entirely due to unusually high-casualty months like April 2004 and November 2004.

That is all.