Thursday, November 11, 2004

Strange...

A lot of the fatalities that have occurred during the Fallujah assault are not in Fallujah, or even listed as in Al-Anbar province (which in many cases presumably means just outside of Fallujah). Of course, some of the Babil province deaths could be near Fallujah as well, as Babil province's northern border appears to be quite close to Fallujah.

Provincial map
Political Map (Includes Fallujah)

Still, it seems possible that there are a lot of deaths outside of Fallujah. This could be somewhat responsible for the fact that our casualties have been relatively heavy for the past few days even though we are told that the Fallujan resistance is lighter than expected. Although it could also be, as I said before, that the resistance is killing just as many Coalition troops as if it had been heavier, but it will kill them for a shorter period of time because we will take Fallujah faster (e.g. light resistance could mean 10-12 fatalities a day for 5 days, heavy resistance 10-12 fatalities a day for 2-3 weeks).

I also note that the number of fatalities for November 9 (Tuesday) has increased since this (Thursday) morning. This means that there is at least a two day delay in getting at some of the fatality stats. So the current listing of 2 deaths for Wednesday and none yet for today are probably going to go up in the future. So I'll be able to get a much better picture of what is happening in a week or so (hopefully), once this operation has mostly finished and once the figures have run their way through the system.

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