Tuesday, November 30, 2004

Elections in Iraq

Despite the fact that some have called for the elections in Iraq to be delayed, things will apparently proceed on schedule.

This is probably wise. Whatever problems with legitimacy an electoral delay may cause, if the Shiites don't get a chance to have their say, they will revolt.
I doubt that we will see much democracy, but the US is going to do its best to appease the Shiites because if they turn against us, our list of enemies in Iraq triples or quadruples.
The Arab Sunnis won't like this, and it is possible that the elections will have to be arranged so as to set aside a number of seats for them in order to keep them quiet. But there is no way that Bush can afford to anger the Shiites.
Of course, long term we're screwed in Iraq elections or no.

That is all.