According to the count at Iraq Coalition Casualties, there have been 53 coalition soldiers killed so far this month. That breaks down to 51 in from hostile action and 2 from accidents, or 49 from the US and 4 from the UK.
News of the deaths seems to be trickling in, as the numbers have been increasing by one each time I check for the past, oh, six to eight hours.
The sudden increase in fatalities isn't a bad sign per se in military terms (of course it is bad news). That is to say that it is not a sign that the coalition is losing. This is because it appears to be realted to a sudden offensive that we are launching against the insurgents and the counteroffensive that they have launched. That is to say that it is not due to some sudden increase in the insurgency but due to the fact that the US military is moving aggressively to shut down the insurgents and such a move has a price tag attached.
What will be bad news is if the increase in casualties is prolonged and if progress eludes us.
I am somewhat pessimistic on this score. I have a feeling that by the end of the month, we will have beaten back the insurgency. However, in doing so, there will be thousands of Iraqis made homeless who will now hate our guts, and from this new insurgents will go.
If this campaign is successful in making Iraq more peaceful up until the elections, expect the insurgency to resume soon afterwards.
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