Juan Cole and the Iraqi Civil War

Juan Cole notes the new ethnic component of the insurgency, i.e. Sunnis attacking the Kurds.
Later, though, he seems to suggest that if we keep the provinces multiethnic, we can make civil war less likely.
"Eighteen multi-ethnic provinces would be more stable in the long run. Provinces like Diyala (with Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites), Ninevah (Christians, Turkmen, Kurds) and Baghdad (everything) are a bulwark against ethnic cleansing and the simplification of Iraq's ethnic map."
I think that whether we go for regional provinces or whether we try to build the provinces multiculturally, we will find the different ethnic groups at each other's throats.
The Kurds currently have an incentive to destroy or to get us to destroy Mosul, or at least to destroy Sunni Arab areas of the city. I expect that we will see a new battlefield in Mosul before the year is out, either with Kurdish Pershmega driving many of the Arabs out, or with the US more or less doing it for them.
I doubt that any of this is affected significantly by whether Mosul is considered part of a Kurdish province or part of a multicultural one.

That is all.