Previously, concerns about civil conflict in Iraq centered on the issue of the Sunni Arabs. But recent events bring up the possibility that the Kurds and the Shiite Arabs may be on the road to some serious strife. President Jalal Talabani and Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari appear to be butting heads not only on procedural and symbolic issues, but also on substantive ones as well.
Juan Cole gives us some background, which also suggests that this onlict may wind up involving the Turkmen, a "second-tier" ethnic group in Iraq that has been mostly forgotten.
The conflict revolves around the ethnic cleansing of (many, but not all) Kurds from Kirkuk under Saddam, their replacement with (mostly Shiite) Arabs, and the purported pledge of the Shiite-led government to resettle Kurds in Kirkuk. Essentially, it boils down to whether or not the Kurds will be resettled in time to vote in a referendum as to whether or not Kirkuk joins the Kurdish confederacy. While some Turkmen were displaced in Saddam's ethnic cleansing campaign as well, they might well take hte side of the Shiite Arabs, as they are mostly Shiites as well and as there is bad blood between them and the Kurds.
I would think that any Kurdish/Shiite Arab conflict would be smaller than any Kurdish/Sunni Arab or Shiite Arab/Sunni Arab conflict, as the Kurds and Shiite Arabs do not overlap as much and do not have as much to fight over. But it is certainly possible that Kirkuk itself is considered important enough to start a major war over.
More on this as it develops.
That is all.
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