Thoughts on the Iraqi Elections and Suspicions of Vote-Rigging

In a recent Juan Cole post, concerns about irregularities in the Iraqi elections are discussed. He also discusses them here.

A few thoughts occur to me on the possibilities if the election were rigged:

(1) If it were not for the "provincial veto" provision (i.e. a 2/3 vote pr mopre against the constitution in any three provinces would cause the referendume to fail), there would have been no quesiton as to whether or not the constitution would have passed. Obviously the Shia and Kurds supported it overwhelmingly, so the overall vote would certainly give the constitution a huge margin of victory.

Therefore, problems with low voter turnout in certain provinces are, in practical terms, irrelevant, as Cole himself points out.

Also, concerns over the unbelievably unbalanced vote in some provinces are also effectively irrelevant. while Andrew Sullivan draws parellels between this and the elction under Saddam, the fact of the matter is, that all of the provinces being looked at would probably have voted for the constitution in such high numbers that any rigging would not have made much difference.

(2) If the vote were rigged, it is more likely in my opinion that the Iraqi government did it than that the US did it. And while a passed constitution serves the US's PR purposes, it serves us far better to have the vote be seen as being as fair as possible, and it is the Shia and the Kurds who have the real motivation to get it passed.

What I am trying to say is that any rigging of the elections might well have been done without any US active sanction or encouragement. To the extent that the US passively sanctions any vote rigging (if it does do so), that is,m to teh extent that the US does not raise any protest, it may well be because we don't want to upset the Shia or Kurds rather than because we wish for a staged result.

Put another way, I would not be surprised if the Shia and Kurds were determined that the constitution would pass no matter what, and if they were I am not certain that there is much that the US could do to insure a fair election without causing a great deal of resentment in our Iraqi allies.

(3) Regardless of the results, the most positive PR that the US could get from vote-rigging would be to make the Sunni Arab "yes" vote seem as large as possible. That some Sunni Arabs voted "yes" was prominently mentioned by Rich Lowry, and obviously would be a major step in the right direciton, particularly if we accept the administration's paradigm that building a popularly supported government is the way to defeat the insurgency.

The point, I guess, is that if the election were rigged it would not have the major effect that some might fear it would have, unless the rigging was done to one of the "in play" provinces. And even if it were, it is not necessarily a sign of corruption in the Bush administration or in the coalition. So to me it is not as significant an issue as it might seem it should be.

That is all.