On the Z-to-Z Letter

Ilana Mercer thinks it is genuine.

I'll have to check a second to see what they actually say before I make too many more comments (I previously doubted their authenticity here and here).

Of course, I may have the made the same mistake that I accuse the pro-warriors of making, namely, confusing the insurgency with Al Qaeda, and therefore doubting any statemetns of Al Qaeda weakness in Iraq because the insurgency appears to be chugging along fairly strongly. It is certainly possible that Al Qaeda-ites in Iraq feels that Al Qaeda is being "suffocated" or that the people in Iraq are turning against them, even if the rest of those involved in the insurgency are getting stronger.

While the majority (>90%) of the insurgents are Iraqis, and so the claim that the insurgency consists largely of foreign fighters is wishful thinking. On the other hand, it woul be a mistake to think that "foreign fighter" and "Al Qaeda" are synonymous; there could be quote a few Iraqi Al Qaeda members, and some of the (small number of) foreign fighters might have no ties to Al Qaeda.

So it is unclear what percentage of the insurgency is Al Qaeda-affiliated, and how much the insurgency would weaken if Al Qaeda decided to up and leave Iraq.

I(n any case, I don't think the letter is proof that we are on the verge of total victory in Iraq.

That is all for now.