Two thoughts on this James Robbins article on NRO:
(1) I am unconvinced that passing a constitution will be the death knell of the insurgency. After all, we were told that the "transfer of sovereignty" would be the death knell, then that the elections in January would signla the insurgents' defeat, and each time the insurgency has continued to plug along. Even if the Sunnis vote in massive numbers in the election, it doesn't mean that insurgency-minded Sunnis will accept any results that don't go their way. Moreover, even if a sizeable chunk can be broughtto vote for the constitution, I don't think that that will pacify those who are determined to have something different.
(2) I question the authenticity of the Al Qaeda letters we keep receiving, as well as questioning how accurate their predictions are. We are to believe that Al Qaeda thinks it is in a race against time to stop the democracy in Iraq that will occur if the U.S. stays the course and doesn't bug out. But didn't Zarqawi supposedly complain he was being suffocated back in January 2004 (use "find" function for the phrase "this is suffocation")? Pardon me if I doubt claims that Zarqawi has almost been defeated. Even if all the memos are authentic, he appears to be a bit of a hypochondriac.
That is all.
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