Smallpox

I saw a little of the fake documentary Smallpox on FX. Just a little.

But two thoughts occur to me when I consider the possibility of a smallpox epidemic. The first is that smallpox is not as contagious as many believe. In fact, it is less contagious than measles. Look here for a Google seach of "How Contagious is Smallpox?"

Secondly, there is the fact that people are a lot better fed (not just in terms of quantity, but in terms of nutrition), and healthier in the western world now than they were back in the western heydey of smallpox, or in the third world over the past century, prior to smallpox's eradication. Nutrition, specifically vitamin A appears to decrease the mortality rate of measles. Presumably this is true of helath in general.

As Donald Miller points out, measles had become much less serious in the US even in the years prior to the vaccination:

"These facts are well known and proudly cited by vaccine proponents. What is less known, and doctors are not taught, is that the death rate for measles declined 97.7 percent during the first 60 years of the 20th century."
"With rare exception, a well-nourished child who contracts measles will recover smoothly from the infection."

(Note: I do not endorse Dr. Miller's take on the issue of vaccination; I am quoting the article for its discussion of nutrition and disease, not for its criticism of the current vaccination regimen)

Remember, smallpox was all but eliminated in developed countries by the mid-1900s. The cases over the next 30 years were mainly in third world countries where nutrition and health was generally not as good. As far as I know, all mortality figures we have are for societies without modern nutrition and medical advances.

Is it possible that the high mortality rate from smallpox would be a lot lower in a country where people are healthier due to better nutrition, sanitation, medical advances, etc.? Not that the medical advances include a treatment for smallpox, but rather that they prevent other conditions from exacerbating the disease.

In short, it seems to me that a smallpox epidemic would be less lethal than most people seem to suppose (as I understnad it, people just extrapolate mortality figures from the 18th and 19th centuries and from the third world in the 20th century to modern America), and that its spread would be slow enough that the disease could be severely curbed by quarantine and that we'd haev time to make enough vaccine before the disease got to pandemic proportions.

Any thoughts?