Debunking Mackubin

Here's Mac Thomas Owens' latest, explaining why the news from Iraq is actually quite good.

Let's have a little fun debunking, shall we?

"The good news in Iraq must start with the recent referendum on the new Iraqi constitution. While swamped in the U.S. press by the unseemly, indeed disgraceful, reporting of the 2,000-dead-Americans "milestone," the acceptance of the draft constitution by the Iraqi people indicates a real accomplishment."

Yes, the insurgents upped and gave up once they heard tha tthe constitution was ratified, so magical are its properties.

"The second bit of good news is the publication of a letter from al Qaeda's number-two official, Ayman al-Zawahiri, to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi... We are beholden to al-Zawahiri for reminding us why the stakes in Iraq are so high."

Well, while one could argue that the letter proves why the war is necessary to fight, I don't exactly see how it amounts to good news about the direction in which Iraq is going... Moreover, even the idea that this shows how high the stakes are in Iraq and how important it is that we defeat the insurgency before Al Qaeda takes over is suspect. Even assuming that this letter is real and not fake, it does not follow that the majority of the insurgents we are fihting are part of Al Qaeda or have anything to do with Zarqawi. It is by no means clear that what Al Qaeda's strategy and concerns are mean a tinker's dam to most of the insurgents. Nor is it clear that Al Qaeda would take over if the U.S. left. It is possible that some insurgent factions might take control of the country, but it is dubious that such factions would feel any particular fealty to Al Qaeda or deign to let the Wahabists reign over Iraq.

Zarqawi's previous "this is suffocation" statement didn't pan out, or else it did so only for Al Qaeda which was not a large part of the insurgnecy; the insurgency has definitely not been suffocated.

"One of the reasons [i.e. for the successful elections in January] that Iraq is likely to establish a viable government is because the terrorists of Fallujah, deluded into believing they had won in April 2004, overreached, earning the everlasting enmity of ordinary Iraqis who were their victims."

I keep hearing about how ordinary Iraqis love us and hate the insurgents. Polls indicate otherwise. Plus, there is the assumption that we are talking about a unified "Iraqi people" and that attacks against Iraqi civilians will reduce the support for the insurgency in Iraq. Of course, in reality, I seriously doubt whether most Iraqis mind when Iraqis of rival ethnic or religious groups get killed, so we wind up with the mostly Sunni Arab insurgents only turning off Shiites and Kurds, and who don't like the anyway, so it seems unlikely that we will see the huge sudden groundswell of support for the coalition that Mr. Owens seems to be hoping for.

"When the Marines took Fallujah at the end of last year, they began the strategically important process of interdicting the "ratlines," the insurgents' infiltration routes from the Syrian border into the heart of Iraq."

Yes, obviously this has reduced the insurgency a great deal. As anyone can see, the insurgency is suffocating, which is why October had so many coalition fatalties.

"The increasing number of capable Iraqi units means that the Iraqi government can begin to extend the writ of the Iraqi government to Al Anbar province, the heart of the Sunni Triangle."

Yes, those increasing numbers, like one, which is bigger than three. And of course, those increasing number of Iraqi troops is why we have been able to reduce coalition troop levels so much and why we will continue to do so in the future.

"It may seem counterintuitive, but from a strategic standpoint, it is possible to argue that the spike in U.S. casualties actually reflects military success, not failure... he recent up-tick in casualties indicates not so much that the enemy is becoming more aggressive, but that we are. Casualties always increase when one side goes on the offensive... this means more Coalition casualties, but it also means that the insurgents are being killed and captured away from Baghdad."

If our troops were dying in firefights, that argument would have some merit.

But increasingly they are being killed by IEDs. Which would seem to me to indicate that most of the deaths aren't coming from us engaging the enemy in battle.

But I do have some good news from Iraq...

Jalal Talabani just saved a bunch of money on his car insurance by switchi...

That is all.