Troop Reductions?

A memo suggests that the US and Britain are planning to draw down the troops in Iraq.

Juan Cole has some thoughts.

Considering the issue of recruitment, it wouldn't surprise me if the troop levels in Iraq are reduced.

Juan Cole points out that "Of course, it should be remembered that the Pentagon has wanted to draw down its troop numbers radically in the past... Wanting to draw down and being able to are not the same thing." However, this ignores the fact that "not being able to draw down" does not alter the fact that needing not to draw down and being able to not draw down are not the same thing.

In other words, they may not be able to draw down and maintain a stable Iraq, but they may not have any choice but to draw down if they don't restart a draft.

What will happen if we are forced to draw down our troops?

Mr. Cole thinks that we will turn the country over to Kurdish paramilitaries and Shiite militias. I think that this may be politically untenable, as it will keep the country divided; so I have a feeling that we will maintain control, as it were, by using fewer troops for the same effect - in other words, we'll get medieval on the Sunni Arabs. If the Kurds or the Shiites get too uppitty, we'll probably go after them, too.

That is all.