Tuesday, May 24, 2005

To Win in Iraq

Niall Ferguson talks about how insurgencies have been defeated in the past. He seems to think that there is little chance of American success in Iraq.
Sully suggests that the only hope is a good dose of luck.

I am afraid that I see things a lot worse than that. While I don't see a draft as a politically viable option, I have said many times that I think that our distaste for ruthlessness will melt away given sufficient time with little progress, and given a refusal to withdraw. If we refuse to lose in Iraq, and we cannot seem to defeat the insurgency, I think that eventually the push to take off the gloves will become irresistible.

Ideally, if we are going to stay in Iraq, we can use this as an opportunity to move American troops away from unnecessary bases in, e.g. Europe. That may be the only way to keep our manpower up when the troops, an the various methods of getting them to stay longer finally run out.

In any case, I am not hopeful about our prospects in Iraq.

That is all.

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