James Robbins makes a few fallacies in his latest column.
First, he assumes that the truism that insurgencis don't have to win, they just have to hang on, is not true because the Iraqi insurgents are trying to win, not just to hang on.
"In Iraq, for example, the insurgents are seeking not to wait Coalition forces out but to drive them out. They are not awaiting the absence of defeat, they are pursuing victory. This is not a protracted, decades-long strategy; they want us out of there ASAP."
The problem is, of course, that driving us out is what they WANT to do, it's not what they NEED to do. Even if they continuously fail at driving us out ASAP, as long as they don't give up, they win.
Of course, if you believe that Iraq is quickly being rebuilt into a democracy and that the Iraqi army is shaping up nicely, then time is on our side.
But considering the fact that each of the past five months have been among the nine highest monthly hostile death tolls of the war (five of the top eight if you only count months since the end of major combat operations), it is difficult to conclude that the insurgency is on the wane.
Also, Robbins trots out the ol' neocon standby. Expand the war!
"We must also increase pressure on the external supporters of the insurgency."
In other words, try to overthrow Iran and Syria.
More war? This looks bad.
That is all.
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